Friday, June 04, 2010

Time to call the world's bluff - if bluff it is

Now that Israel has lost its UN Security Council guardian, nothing stands in the way of a global war against Israel. This war will not (at first) be fought with guns, but with economic means. Then, when Israel is thought to be weak enough, the world will sit by while the Arab hordes attack the jews and finally finish the job Hitler so clumsily left undone.

I have been ranting and raving against the Israeli dependance on the US for a long time now. I had many reasons for doing so, but I have to admit, I never envisioned a US president who would abandon the jews without even attempting to extort them into doing something they didn't want to do. Obama just hates them, and doesn't need 'disobedience' as an excuse for sanctions.

So now the situation is like this. The UN SC will vote the way the Arab and non-aligned countries desire, and the US will too, or at best they will refrain from using their veto like they used to do when Israel's interests were at stake. From now on, anything is possible, and likely.

An American boycott is now a realistic option. And Israel has nowhere else to turn. Worse, there is no telling what Obama will do for the Arabs and countries like Iran and Turkey - he has already shown strong tendencies to throw Israel under the bus in the name of peace in the Middle-East, and to curry favor with the Islamic world in general. As far as the US are concerned, Israel's only hope is the elections in three years, and an Obama defeat. But three years is a long time to go when Hezbollah is stronger than it has ever been, Iran is closer to nukes than ever before, and even Egypt is opening the borders with Gaza, as Hamas has requested. The Arabs may well attack when they feel sure Israel will not receive military or economic aid from the US, and help from any other quarters was never expected to begin with.

From where I am sitting, Israel is turning into
Masada. It's not a position anyone should want to be in, but the irony is that the dependance on the US is exactly what led to this predicament. Israeli fear of being cut off by the US caused its leadership to act like serfs to the Americans, which led the latter to an attitude of arrogance and superiority, instead of one of friendship and alliance. Until Obama, US presidents treated Israel and its interests as something to be played against the Arabs for favors and bargains, something one doesn't do to a friend and ally.
Now there is an administration led by a man who feels he can get those favors and bargains by bowing and kowtowing to the Arabs, a man who doesn't think he needs Israel even for this demeaning role. Israel is now no longer even a mixed blessing, in the eyes of Obama the country is baggage, a jinx, the cause of strive and violence.

So, how is this going to play out? First, more censure at the UN SC. More 'relief' convoys will follow, and Israel has no choice but to stop them, with predicable consequences.
Then, when Israel ignores the UN SC censure, actual sanctions will follow, and the US will not veto unless Israel makes concessions that threaten the country beyond any speculation. It will be caught between a rock and a very hard place. Israel cannot survive economic sanctions for long, but neither can it go back to the Armistice borders of 1948 and expect to live long.

This is the time to declare to the world that consequences be damned, Israel will steer its own course (as it always should have). If the world is indeed unanimously intent on the destruction of the tiny jewish nation, there can never be any other outcome, and nothing Israel can do will make any difference. The only variable will be the Western nations, Europe and the US in particular. Will they let the jews perish as they did in World War two? I know how Obama will vote, and the same can be said for many European leaders.
But will the peoples of Europe and America stand by AGAIN while a second Holocaust takes place?


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