Prediction: The effect of the 'Disengagement'

Daniel Pipes recently made an interesting point, one that should be obvious to everyone but which is - like so often in cases where proper human behaviour from Arabs is warranted but not expected by anyone - studiously ignored: What will 'Palestinians' actually act like once Israel has completed its flight from Gaza? Pipes on what should happen, and what Israel's critics say WILL happen:

...the Gaza withdrawal will improve Palestinian attitudes toward Israel, leading to an end of incitement and a steep drop in attempted violence, followed by a renewal of negotiations and a full settlement. Logic requires, after all, that if "occupation" is the problem, ending it, even partially, will lead to a solution.

'Occupation' is the problem, therefore, ending even a part of it should result in a dramatic improvement in attitude and relations. Right?
Well, NOT, of course. Apart from the fact that Israel withdrew from large parts of the 'West Bank', which ultimately resulted in the Oslo war instead of a decrease in violence and incitement, here's what Pipes says will happen:

Given that about 80% of Palestinian Arabs continue to reject Israel's very existence, signs of Israeli weakness, such as the forthcoming Gaza withdrawal, will instead inspire heightened Palestinian irredentism. Absorbing their new gift without gratitude, Palestinian Arabs will focus on those territories Israelis have not evacuated. (This is what happened after Israeli forces fled Lebanon.) The retreat will inspire not comity but a new rejectionist exhilaration, a greater frenzy of anti-Zionist anger, and a surge in anti-Israel violence.

I am willing to bet you anything his prediction will come true. Please read the whole article.

Pipes is not the only one to come to this conclusion. Barry Rubin at the Jeruzalem Post comes to much the same conclusion, with some extra arguments that are food for thought:

Consider ... Palestinian politics and the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Here is what might be expected to happen: "This is a step forward by Israel showing that this country is ready to make peace," the Palestinian leader would tell his people. "We must now make the most of this opportunity in two ways."

Rubin puts himself inside the 'Palestinian' leadership as the MSM likes to portray them, and paints the rosy but completely fictitious future: The Arabs bend over backwards to reciprocate the Israeli step.

Then he gets all too realistic:

...what, in fact, is the most likely course of events in the Palestinian debate and politics?

* There will be no decline in incitement or change in the public rhetoric of Palestinian officials speaking to their own people. Thus, of course, Israeli suspicions regarding their intentions will be reinforced.

* The Palestinian movement will continue to be oriented toward conquest and revenge rather than nation-state nationalism.

Rubin sums up many more arguments but the point he makes is clear: The Arabs see the Gaza withdrawal as a victory, and rightly so. A victory is not exactly what they need to dissuade them from the murder and mayhem they've been engaging in for the last century or so.

Rubin sees one small positive in the withdrawal: It will definitively prove that the Arabs are not interested in coexistence, peace or 'just' a country of their own. They want Israel gone, the Jews preferably dead. And this will be proven when they continue their war against Israel after Gaza is theirs.

I don't see that as positive. Because that proof WILL be delivered, and it will make no difference to anyone. The Israeli's already know what the Arabs are really after, and the rest of the world also knows but doesn't care, or will never be convinced of the Arabs' murderous intentions, no matter what. Even detonating a nuke in downtown Tel-Aviv will ultimately be blamed on the Jews themselves.